European stock market predictions

European stock market predictions

Author: Max Fun-loving Date of post: 03.07.2017

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Sign in to BlackRock. Resources for building better portfolios after the rule. With a rebound in inflation expectations and synchronized pick-up in economic indicators, investors may want to embrace the moment and rethink their investment stance. Global growth expectations are on the rise—and we see room for more upside surprises. However, markets may still be underestimating the breadth of the global economic rebound.

Liftoff at last BlackRock GPS vs. BlackRock Investment Institute and Consensus Economics, March The blue line shows the current month economic consensus forecast that we calculate by using GDP-weighted Consensus Economics data.

Sign of a rebound abound: Long-dormant inflation rates have started to creep higher in the eurozone and the UK. Energy prices have driven much of the trend, but a rising percentage of consumer price index components are clocking increases, bolstering our view that the current upswing has legs. Against this backdrop, we have refreshed our three investment themes.

The increasingly broad-based and synchronized global recovery is buoying corporate earnings abroad, underpinning our preference for less pricey non-U. Earnings momentum is particularly strong in Japan and emerging markets, but Europe is a bright spot as well. These strong prospects for earnings growth, combined with reasonable valuations underpin our preference for overseas stocks at this time.

Worries over upcoming elections on the continent look overstated, in our view, unduly dampening investor interest in European stocks. A speedy reset in valuations could accompany fading fears of populists upset as we move through this election-filled year. Earnings upswing Changes in corporate profit estimates, — BlackRock Investment Institute, MSCI and Thomson Reuters, March The lines show the three-month change in the aggregate month forward earnings estimates.

The data are based on the MSCI U. Our outlook for bonds is less sanguine.

European Stock Markets - CNNMoney

Fixed income assets are likely to be challenged amid broadly rising interest rates—and high valuations and tight credit spreads leave little buffer to protect against losses. Bond investors may take some comfort in that we see a low probability of a sharp and sustained surge in yields. Aging populations, heavy institutional demand for yield and still-accommodative monetary policy should subdue the rise, in our view.

But hazards exist, calling for a more dynamic approach to fixed income investing. In this dynamic, less certain fixed income environment, investors should have a variety of strategies in their arsenal.

Economic enthusiasm should be viewed in context: While growth prospects have improved, they remain lackluster compared with historical norms. Our five-year capital market assumptions are restrained by powerful forces such as stagnant productivity growth and slow-growing or shrinking workforces in much of the world—all against a backdrop of richly valued asset prices. This means asset allocations requires a rethink.

Global Stock Market Forecasts

Seeking relative value BlackRock's five-year asset class return assumptions, January BlackRock Investment Institute, BlackRock Solutions, Citigroup, MSCI, JPMorgan, March The bars show BlackRock's annualized nominal return assumptions for the next five years in U. Indexes used for fixed income are the respective Bloomberg Barclays indexes, except for EM debt JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified Index.

Equities use the respective MSCI indexes. Aggregate Index for bonds. This information is not a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or a promise of future performance. Indexes are unmanaged and used for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to be indicative of any fund's or strategy's performance.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. As the above chart shows, potential returns for taking on more risk still look attractive amid high valuations in traditional favorites like U. Credit instruments, which are based on lending to riskier corporate as opposed to government borrowers, offer an attractive trade-off between returns and risk, in our view. For example, we see U. Treasuries in the next five years at less than half the volatility we expect. Within credit, we generally prefer higher-quality bonds such as investment grade.

Reflation is driving opportunities in emerging market equities. To pursue investment growth, investors should broaden their horizon.

Markets have been seemingly unfazed by persistent political uncertainty; the VIX is currently hovering near multi-year lows. Volatility, however, is subject to sporadic outbursts that can wrong-foot investors. We still see bonds acting as effective shock absorbers in portfolios in such times of market stress.

But they offer little safety cushion at today's still-low yields.

Stock Market Forecast for 2017

BlackRock Investment Institute, Baker Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Thomson Reuters, March The economic policy uncertainty index measures policy-related economic uncertainty based on newspaper coverage of related terms.

Introducing new asset classes to their portfolios — or employing strategies that can take idiosyncratic risks on their behalf — looks compelling in an environment that still favors risk-taking and is driven by the differentiated effects of reflation and politics.

We believe this may offer a rare path to attaining above-market returns at a time when broad markets may disappoint. In a world where traditional diversification doesn't suffice, investors may want to seek new means to ballast portfolios. This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of April ; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. The information presented does not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy or investment decision. This document contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances.

An assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial advisor before making an investment decision.

International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments.

This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance.

Note that these asset class assumptions are passive, and do not consider the impact of active management. All estimates in this document are in U. Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations to all the asset classes and strategies.

References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.

Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration purposes only and are subject to significant limitations.

Expected returns for each asset class can be conditional on economic scenarios; in the event a particular scenario comes to pass, actual returns could be significantly higher or lower than forecasted.

Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making an investment decision.

European Stock Markets - CNNMoney

The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio.

Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact future returns.

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european stock market predictions

Setting the stage Global growth expectations are on the rise—and we see room for more upside surprises. G7 consensus, — Sources: Broadening reflation The increasingly broad-based and synchronized global recovery is buoying corporate earnings abroad, underpinning our preference for less pricey non-U. Earnings upswing Changes in corporate profit estimates, — Sources: Prep bond portfolios In this dynamic, less certain fixed income environment, investors should have a variety of strategies in their arsenal.

Low returns ahead Economic enthusiasm should be viewed in context: Seeking relative value BlackRock's five-year asset class return assumptions, January Sources: Uncover growth in emerging markets Reflation is driving opportunities in emerging market equities.

Different diversification Markets have been seemingly unfazed by persistent political uncertainty; the VIX is currently hovering near multi-year lows. Embrace factor strategies In a world where traditional diversification doesn't suffice, investors may want to seek new means to ballast portfolios. Sign up for our market insights Sign up for our market insights. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee that dividend funds will continue to pay dividends.

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